Russia's Annual Inflation Accelerates to 6.33% in August Despite Monthly Deflation

Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 6.33% at the end of August 2026, up from 5.98% in July, according to Rosstat data reported by Kommersant. The faster annual pace came even though consumer prices declined by 0.08% over the month itself.

Deflation for the month, acceleration for the year

The August release combines two opposite movements. Month on month, consumer prices edged down by 0.08% as the seasonal fall in fruit and vegetable prices offset gains elsewhere. Year on year, however, the rate climbed to 6.33% from 5.98% in July, since the annual gauge compares today's prices with the level of August 2025. The cumulative picture confirms the pressure: over January–August 2026 prices rose by 4.67%, against 3.94% in the same period a year earlier.

Inside the food basket

Food products became 0.26% cheaper in August, with fruit and vegetables down 5.72% as the new harvest reached the shelves. The detail, however, is uneven:

• cabbage fell by 18.8%, potatoes by 17.9% and carrots by 14.6% — the steepest declines of the month;
• oranges added 8.1% and cucumbers 3.4%;
• among staples, sugar gained 5.7%, buckwheat 5.1% and meat 2.2%.

The fuel segment set the opposite tone for the whole year. Gasoline — the most conspicuous price mover of 2026 — is up by 24.64% since January and added another 0.76% in August alone.

Policy backdrop: the Bank of Russia holds at 14%

The statistics landed on the day of the monetary policy meeting. On 11 September 2026 the Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 14% per annum and flagged rising pro-inflationary risks. The regulator expects annual inflation of 6–7% in 2026 and a return to 4% in 2027, with the target held thereafter. Interfax, citing the same Rosstat dataset, put annual food inflation at 5.08% in August — below the headline rate, which points to fuel and services as the main contributors to the acceleration.

Key figures from the August release

1. Annual inflation: 6.33%, up from 5.98% in July.
2. Monthly change: minus 0.08%, a seasonal deflation.
3. January–August: plus 4.67%, versus plus 3.94% a year earlier.
4. Gasoline: plus 24.64% year to date, plus 0.76% in August.
5. Key rate: held at 14% on 11 September 2026; the 2026 inflation forecast is 6–7%.

The deflationary month was driven by food: produce prices fell 5.72% month on month, with white cabbage down 18.8%, potatoes 17.9% and carrots 14.6%, while oranges (+8.1%), sugar (+5.7%), buckwheat (+5.1%) and meat (+2.2%) became more expensive. The Bank of Russia expects inflation of 6–7% for 2026 as a whole and a return to 4% in 2027, keeping it near that level thereafter; at its September 11 meeting the regulator held the key rate at 14% and pointed to rising pro-inflationary risks.