Consensus Cools: Analysts Cut Russia's 2025 Inflation Forecast to 6.3% and Growth to 0.9%

MOSCOW — Analysts polled by the Bank of Russia have lowered their inflation forecast for 2025 in Russia to 6.3% from the 6.6% they were predicting in October, according to the central bank's latest consensus survey, Interfax reported on Dec 10, 2025.

The December round, which surveyed 30 economists between December 5 and 9, sketches an economy that is gradually cooling toward the regulator's objectives: inflation is seen returning to the 4% target by 2027 and holding there in 2028, while GDP growth hovers near 1% before accelerating to 1.7–1.8% at the end of the forecast horizon.

2025: softer prices, slower growth, unchanged rate

The headline revision concerns prices. Over a single month the consensus shaved 0.3 percentage points off its end-2025 inflation forecast, bringing it to 6.3%. Growth expectations were trimmed more cautiously:

• inflation in 2025 — 6.3% (October survey: 6.6%);
• GDP growth in 2025 — 0.9% (previously 1.0%);
• average key rate in 2025 — 19.2%, unchanged from the previous round.

The fact that the average key rate expectation for the current year did not move suggests that analysts consider the monetary stance through the end of 2025 already priced in — even as growth slows to below 1%.

The road to 4%: rates and growth through 2028

Beyond the current year the survey shows a measured disinflation path. The 2026 inflation forecast was left unchanged at 5.1%, the 2027 estimate was lowered to 4.0% from 4.1%, and the 2028 projection was kept at exactly 4% — the level the Bank of Russia treats as its target.

Average key rate expectations

• 2026 — 14.1% (raised from 13.7% in October);
• 2027 — 10.3% (previously 10.0%);
• 2028 — 8.9% (slightly lowered from 9.0%);
• neutral rate — 8.0%, unchanged.

The revisions are not uniform: for 2026–2027 analysts now expect easing to proceed more slowly than they did a month earlier, yet the end point of the cycle has shifted down. The neutral-rate anchor of 8.0% was confirmed once again, and the 2028 average of 8.9% sits just above it — implying that, in the consensus view, monetary policy stays mildly restrictive until the very end of the horizon.

Growth expectations were revised downward across the entire forecast period: GDP is now seen expanding 1.1% in 2026 (previously 1.2%), 1.7% in 2027 (previously 1.8%) and 1.8% in 2028 (previously 1.9%).

A firmer ruble and cheaper oil

The currency block of the survey was revised in the ruble's favour at every point of the horizon:

1. 2025 — an average of 83.8 rubles per dollar (October estimate: 85.0);
2. 2026 — 90.3 rubles per dollar (previously 94.6);
3. 2027 — 97.6 rubles per dollar (previously 100.0);
4. 2028 — 102.0 rubles per dollar (previously 103.7).

At the same time, analysts lowered their expectations for the average oil price used for tax purposes: to $56 per barrel in 2025 from $58, to $54 in 2026 from $58 and to $57 in 2027 from $60. The 2028 estimate was left unchanged at $60 per barrel.

Why the consensus matters

The Bank of Russia's survey of economists is a reference point for market expectations, and the December round captures a distinct shift in sentiment: forecasters are more confident about disinflation in 2025, slightly more sceptical about growth in every year of the horizon, and more optimistic about the ruble — even as they push the expected pace of rate cuts further out. Cheaper tax-basis oil alongside a stronger currency is an unusual combination, and it leaves the 6.3% inflation figure for 2025 and the 14.1% average key rate for 2026 as the two numbers to watch when the next survey round arrives.